Sunday, July 6, 2008

PTT, oil : “Do you want us to be a non-profit organisation ?”




”It's time Thai society and the state decided whether they need more subsidies or to cut consumption by using more alternative fuels. If you want us to be the organisation for subsidies, issue a new law to change our status to a non-profit organisation and delist us from the Stock Exchange of Thailand.”


This is a very strong and bold statement from the president of PTT. And it comes after many other complaints (here, there and here).


And indeed, the situation is surreal (like in many other asian countries). The state owns the majority of the oil company... and organizes subsidy of the market through PTT, officially and unofficially.


The result ? A disaster a far as costs are concerned. And totally distorted markets. The economic agents can't make any rational choice in such environment. They rush to LPG for instance, thinking it's a good deal, on the long term... but LPG is heavily subsidized but It will have to increase, etc.


PTT Plc, the majority state-owned oil and gas company, expects the government's oil and gas subsidy policies to cost it 63 billion baht this year, according to chief executive and president Prasert Bunsumpun. The liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) price-support scheme alone is projected to cost the company around 50 billion baht, as it needs to import the fuel at a price of US$950 a tonne but has to sell it for the equivalent of $330. [...]


”Government subsidies are an effective tool to help consumers but only for a short term,” he said. He added that it remained a question where the massive amount of money needed would come from.


”PTT can shoulder these costs but only as long as we can. Look at national oil firms in other countries like China, India, even Malaysia. They can't stand huge losses from so many years of subsidies,” he said, responding to calls by activists and senators for more subsidies. (Bangkok Post)


The game is easy when prices are volatile (go up and then go down). Unfortunatly, the black swan breaks this logic. Prices are increasing. Non stop (new record thursday at 145 USD per barrel ! ).


Beyond the political games, the short term ideas, there is one golden rule : eventually, someone has to pay the cost of the subsidy.


No escape : there isn't any free lunch.


Thai people will pay. One way or another.


By the way... do you own shares of PTT ? ;-)




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